Volatility and hit rate in plain English
What our volatility labels and hit-rate figures mean, how they were measured over millions of spins, and why they predict nothing.
Two words you will see on every machine
Each Orbitpop machine shows a volatility label and, on its information screen, a hit rate and a return figure. They help describe a machine's general character: whether it tends to pay small amounts often or larger amounts less often. They are descriptions, not forecasts.
Hit rate, defined
The hit rate is the share of spins that return any play coins at all. If a machine's hit rate is one in four, it means that, across a very large number of spins, roughly a quarter of them paid something. It does not mean every fourth spin pays, and it does not mean a payout is owed after three quiet spins.
The return figure is related but different. It describes how many play coins come back, on average, for every play coin staked, again measured across millions of spins. A machine can have a high hit rate and a similar return to one with a low hit rate; the difference is in how the coins are spread out.
Volatility, defined
Volatility describes how bumpy a machine's results tend to be. A machine that pays often, usually in small amounts, feels steady. A machine that pays less often, but sometimes in larger amounts, feels swingier. On Orbitpop, the volatility label on each machine comes directly from its measured hit rate.
- A higher hit rate gives a calmer volatility label.
- A lower hit rate gives a swingier volatility label.
- The label describes the feel of the machine, not how generous it is.
Volatility is a matter of taste. Some players enjoy a steady trickle; others enjoy quiet spells broken by the odd lively spin. Neither is better, and neither earns anything of value.
How the numbers were measured
Every return, hit-rate and feature figure on Orbitpop was measured by running each machine's own code for millions of spins. Using the machine's own code means the figures describe the machine you actually play, not a simplified model of it. Millions of spins are needed because short runs are noisy; only over a huge sample do the averages settle down.
That is also why the figures cannot tell you about your next ten minutes. Your session is a tiny slice of spins, and tiny slices vary a lot.
Why none of this predicts anything
- Every spin is random, decided by your browser's random number generator.
- Every spin is independent: past results have no effect on future ones.
- No machine is ever "due" a payout, and none goes "hot" or "cold".
- Choosing a particular volatility does not improve your results.
- Nothing on Orbitpop predicts what would happen in real-money gambling.
Play coins have no value and cannot be withdrawn, sold or exchanged, so these figures are purely there to help you pick a machine whose rhythm you enjoy. Use them the way you might read the description on the back of a board game box.
Next up: The four progressive play-coin pots